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Gann Management Ltd- Celebrating 28 years of
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Telephone 0161 285 4488 | Fax 0161 494 6432 | Email
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02nd May 2008 |
IS THE REAL CRUNCH ALMOST UPON US?
(After the Credit Crunch now prepare for a
possible Asset Crunch)
The amendment on the FTSE 100 chart shows that I had got a little
ahead of the market and that we are now in the sideways move of May & June
2001. Consequently the reflection is therefore still intact with the timing for
a decision almost upon us as indicated by the falling angles.
This
timing falls in line with other Gann calculations indicating that within a few
days all should be clarified. History, via the 7 year cycle, is suggesting a
severe fall of approx 30% down to 4300 in double quick time. However this
scenario would be overruled in the event of a confirmed rise above the falling
angle which would smash the 7 year cycle and the index would surprise demanding
a look for a rise to the old tops at 6950. All experienced traders always go
with a surprise.
Why am I looking for a fall rather than an upside surprise?
1 - The informed buyers are selling into the last rise which continues
to be bearish.
2 - The advance decline line is showing more shares
declining than rising despite the index rallying which is bearish.
3 -
Even more bearish is that my analysis has exposed no fewer than 78 shares as
possible ‘shorts’.
4 - The index has retraced 50% of the last
fall and for chartists it has also risen to the falling 30 week moving average.
5 - The index could fall through he rising angle any day now.
6
- The index has risen to 4 percentage levels from recent lows.
7 -
There is the possibility of a triple top formation on the weekly chart which is
very bearish but this is tempered by a neutral two week chart trend which would
become bullish on further strength.
8 - It should be noted that major
moves often commence after public holidays.
9 - The US S & P 500 is
also tracking itself seven years ago suggesting a heavy fall could be imminent.
10 - Most commentators, economists, experts are now getting bullish.
This is bearish from a contrarians perspective.
This time 7 years ago
we were showing returns of over 100% from our ‘Shorting’ programmes.
..Fancy joining in this time round? Our current portfolio is in neutral mode so
we can adjust swiftly in accordance with which way the markets dictate.
Don’t tell the markets which way they should go…let the
markets tell you where to go.
40% ENERGY STOCKS 20% SHORT UK BANKS 20%
OTHER SHORTS 10% INFLATION LINKED STOCKS 10% COMMODITIES
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