GML - Where to from Here? - 05th March 2008

The reflection of the FTSE 100 2001 continues to move in line with the FTSE 100 today.

The reflection of the FTSE 100 2001 continues to move in line with the FTSE 100 today. This has been observed since October of last year and has a remarkable resemblance enabling us to anticipate moves with a great deal of accuracy.

















As anticipated there has been a short term rally of 31 days. The 2001 rise from 19/3/01 topped out after 31 days then slipped a bit before rallying back to the tops. There was then a sideways move before the market collapsed 20 days after the initial top. We cannot expect a perfect mirror image to last for ever. However, as we stand today it is suggesting the recent rally is over and there is a move sideways before the collapse. This is also suggested by the Gann timing angle under.









Another important indicator we use is the informed buyer's index where informed buyers are bearishly selling into recent strength.

















We have also reached Gann resistance at 6000 but the timing angle is still some way from where we stand today also suggesting patience is probably necessary before the index falls.

Over recent years our analysis has failed to expose 'Short' positions but this has now reversed dramatically with 50% of our future signals being 'Shorts' We also have more bear sectors than bull sectors emerging from our Sector analysis. This is also indicative of a bear market for 2008.

Our medium to long term trend analysis from 2 week charts is showing the vast majority of share and market trends turning to the downside. If you are trading on 'hope' you would be wise to face reality as you could get smashed before you realize that living on hope is NOT a strategy in bear markets…and don't listen to that nonsense that markets always rise in the end. It might strictly be true but will it be in your lifetime and you will probably need the cash rather than being the devastated owner of useless share certificates? A hopeful investor in 1929 would have got his money back in 1957 if he wasn't with the great Guru in the sky!

The January Barometer bellows out crash; crash and more crash and it is 80% accurate. The January move suggests a fall until the summer followed by a disappointing rally until the end of the year.

With all these overwhelming bearish indicators now is probably the time to make money from the downside. We have already started this process with many more probabilities in the pipeline.

DON'T FOCUS ON MAKING MONEY; FOCUS ON PROTECTING WHAT YOU HAVE……PLAY GREAT DEFENSE, NOT GREAT OFFENCE….THEN THE PROFITS WILL FOLLOW' - PAUL TUDOR JONES

This was our headline last month. We have followed this strategy with some success in a falling market putting us in line with world leaders with the best still in front of us.























Despite market falls our 2008 results show that at no point has there been any slippage in the capital employed. In the first two months we have enjoyed a 6.8% profit which when annualised is indicating a possible 41% return over the year. Our extravagant aim this year is 100% if the markets go the way we anticipate. However markets have a horrible habit of proving you wrong. If they do this time then our great defence will rescue us from our dreams and our analysis will force us down the right road.

As we stand today (3/3/08) we are fully invested with a sustainable level of leverage with happily 45% in short positions; happily 22% silver and gold holdings and not so happily with two smaller holdings in South Korea and UPM.

















Our pension plans are 45% in cash and 55% Inflation linked stocks which could be increased shortly on a move into new high ground.

Is it time to join us…we are very good in falling markets?