All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state.
Benito Musolini

Throughout my lifetime I have always been fascinated by the reasons why the German Nation was attracted to Nazism and how a whole nation were taken in by such evil. There are a considerable number of theories put forward such as the threat of communism, a period of extreme hyper inflation, economic catastrophe thrown upon them by the onerous treaties after the first world war. All these reasons and many more contributed to the election of Hitler, perhaps one of the most evil men in history, by over 90% of the population. Obviously at the time there was an overwhelming optimistic desire to look to a collection of vagabonds and gangsters to solve their problems. There was a massive general agreement by all to believe in an answer that proved to be blatantly and hideously wrong.

Those who were able to see through the morass of newspeak and propaganda found themselves isolated from the common man who considered them to be nothing more than a collection of freaks. Even the wise in the Jewish community were unable to persuade most fellow Jews of the horrors ahead. The inbuilt optimism of the human race whilst normally an asset can at times lead to horrific consequences.

At this time my thoughts are directed to the current economic dilemma equally as severe as the 1930’s but not yet with its consequences, and the almost universal view that now all is well. I find this conclusion as disturbing as the 1930’s Germanic view of Adolf Hitler. My long established view that when a course of action is taken which is contrary to almost all others, especially the experts, there is almost a guarantee that the right path is being taken. None the less, during the period up to confirmation, the critism, pressure and demands on patience are extreme. 

Recently at a presentation to a small collection of I.F.A.’s I found myself in a parallel situation, demonstrated by an abrupt departure of a number of delegates, who found my warnings of a similarity to the 1930’s markets, totally indigestible. In the early 1930’s I am sure that anyone who foresaw the horrendous events ahead would have seen their views similarly dismissed.

During my time studying the markets the conclusions I have drawn from looking at similar historical events is that when the majority are of one mind they are inevitable wrong. As an adjunct to this observation a number of simplistic fundamental assumptions are always sought to support the thesis…this being the chief reasons why the vast majority of investors remain in devastating Bear markets…hope being the tender trap. The even sadder truth is that they tend to fall into the same trap time and time again as of course ‘things are always different this time round’.

Now I am not here to scare you to death. I am here solely to highlight a possible or perhaps probable can of worms and should such difficulties evolve then preparations NOW are essential to overcome any future problems whether horrific or otherwise. It is usually more than probable that wealth can also be accumulated at such times.

My first observation drawn from today and the 1930’s is the disguised nature of Britain’s ruling party. The Labour party has been assembled from a collection of committed Scottish communist inspired politicians. The surprise element is that we are really ruled by a group of camouflaged fascists imposing their insidious control on all aspects of our lives. This judgement is probably one that you find mystifying as the nature of fascism is unlikely to have been a feature of your education over the years. This has been directed by neo socialist propaganda from so called centre parties within our collapsing educational system where the intelligent are brought down to the less bright in order not to affect their sensibilities.

But let the Fascist originator Mussolini explain the concept very astutely.

Fascism is the philosophy of government that stresses the primacy and glory of the state. This is coupled with unquestioning obedience to its leaders, subordination of the individual will to the state's authority, and harsh suppression of dissent. It is different from communism by its protection of business and landowning elites and its preservation of class systems.

Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power. Benito Mussolini

I ask you to think of the explosion of the civil service, local government, thousands of new laws annually in order to observe,  monitor and control the individual. I ask you to remember the stealth taxation antics of Brown and the City bankers to extract wealth from citizens. This was followed by the inevitable crash after which the political and banker gangster class piled up 40 years of debt on top of historically record debt levels in order to cover up their catalogue of desperately obnoxious economic messes. Despite this catastrophe there has been no change in this collection of human slime or jail sentences despite the country being plummeted into penury. I ask you to think of the inability to travel just a few yards without being observed by armies of cameras. I ask you to note the power of the police being increased by the day with the excuse being to offset a small group of terrorists. They even send our troops to be murdered in the name of protecting our citizens from this minute threat.

We have seen the world’s leaders scrambling desperately in collusion with the world’s bankers to cover up the consequences of their perpetually disastrous credit policies. Their self-righteous leadership has left the future full of anxiety and foreboding yet they persist in claiming success by this horrendous debt creation which will do nothing but create either severe deflation or even the severer hyper inflation. The hideous printing of money into the economy is the sole concocted reason for the recent rise on the world’s stock markets. As in 1930 this will be followed a correction. The only question is how far will it go? This leads into the ‘Where to from Here’ but now taking into account the extraordinary economic and political circumstances in which we find ourselves which should help us to facilitate the belief in the impossible.

So how do we protect ourselves from this mess?

The object of this tirade is to emphasise that even in the current dire circumstances it is possible to plan the necessary protection and avoid the worst with constant stewardship alongside the expectation of considerable gain…so lets get started. 

The FTSE 100 Update.

The first essential element in avoiding disaster is to steer clear of current wisdom. Look at the markets in a dispassionate way. Bear in mind that practically all are now bullish on the stock markets. The contrary view must therefore be extremely cautious. In the event of a downward trend change it should be taken seriously. Take recourse into a ‘maverick’ mentality and generate an independent and unorthodox mind set. The new world will be yours as the old order fades into obscurity.

Over the last couple of months the FTSE 100 has only managed to meander sideways and is now 4% up from 5190 to approx 5400. Now we find the FTSE at a timing point having risen to the angle and hit a substantial resistance area thus achieving a decision level. Which way will the market now turn and will upward short and medium trends be reversed by lower tops and bottoms on the day and weekly trend lines?

After the Gann analysis the next question is what are the informed buyers doing? Well they have started to sell whilst the index is rising. This is a discrepancy but not yet of any great significance. This is the first indication of weakness ahead but not enough just yet to be taken seriously. Should the discrepancy continue, up to say Christmas, it will confirm future weakness ahead.

The conclusion must be for a little more patience.

Regards,

Fred Stafford.

WHAT WILL BE THE CATAYLIST FOR THE FALL?

PERHAPS THE WHOLESALE ISSUE OF DRAGON BONDS

To be continued ......................